M8: Mango Tango - Night 5

underFlo · Postby **underFlo** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:35 pm

Let's say the voodoo lady chose User X and the banned word is contained in Code 1.

If he doesn't cahnge it, he either gets Code 1 in the first post and probably dies, or gets another code and is unlikely to die.

If he does change it with each post, he either hits it with the first post and dies or doesn't hit it in the first post AND has his other posts where each of them has the probability to hit the code of the banned word.

Also we should totally change the codes on a daily base and, if possible, as random as we can.

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:36 pm

You're forgetting that the likelihood of the voodoo lady guessing the code right is less than 1%.

TLtimelord · Postby **TLtimelord** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:37 pm

Why are we talking so much when nothing has happened yet? Ou're literally posting for the sake of posting.

Please everyone, post when we actually have something useful to post. It makes the game easier to follow.

zlaker · Postby **zlaker** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:41 pm

why are there 7 pages in night 1?

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:42 pm

zlakerboy357 wrote:why are there 7 pages in night 1?

We were discussing how to get around the voodoo lady

Postby **Magna** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:47 pm

C4n w3 pl3453 3nd 7h3 n1gh7 34rl13r 70d4y? 1 c4n'7 w417 un71l 12:00 AM 70 533 wh0 g3t5 lynch3d.

Postby **Marina** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:48 pm

bomber... you wont die before morning sheesh, did you even read the rules

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:48 pm

Blue Bomber wrote:C4n w3 pl3453 3nd 7h3 n1gh7 34rl13r 70d4y? 1 c4n'7 w417 un71l 12:00 AM 70 533 wh0 g3t5 lynch3d.

b3 p@7!3π+

underFlo · Postby **underFlo** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:50 pm

KoolKat wrote:You're forgetting that the likelihood of the voodoo lady guessing the code right is less than 1%.

But if you change it with each post the chances of you getting the same code the voodoo lady chose only grow.

Look at it like that: You've been dropped into an empty field where there's one mine. You can either walk around there or stand still, knowing that at a certain time someone's coming to get you back. What would you do? The obvious answer is standing still.

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:51 pm

Nickname wrote:
KoolKat wrote:You're forgetting that the likelihood of the voodoo lady guessing the code right is less than 1%.
But if you change it with each post the chances of you getting the same code the voodoo lady chose only grow.

Look at it like that: You've been dropped into an empty field where there's one mine. You can either walk around there or stand still, knowing that at a certain time someone's coming to get you back. What would you do? The obvious answer is standing still.

Bad analogy

10 points from Gryffindor

underFlo · Postby **underFlo** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:54 pm

KoolKat wrote:
Nickname wrote:
KoolKat wrote:You're forgetting that the likelihood of the voodoo lady guessing the code right is less than 1%.
But if you change it with each post the chances of you getting the same code the voodoo lady chose only grow.

Look at it like that: You've been dropped into an empty field where there's one mine. You can either walk around there or stand still, knowing that at a certain time someone's coming to get you back. What would you do? The obvious answer is standing still.
Bad analogy

10 points from Gryffindor

Why?

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:55 pm

Because, if you use the same code multiple times, the chances of the voodoo lady guessing the code is like 100% and using it multiple times will make it really hard to avoid using certain coded words

Postby **Marina** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 2:59 pm

Nickname wrote:
KoolKat wrote:
Nickname wrote: But if you change it with each post the chances of you getting the same code the voodoo lady chose only grow.

Look at it like that: You've been dropped into an empty field where there's one mine. You can either walk around there or stand still, knowing that at a certain time someone's coming to get you back. What would you do? The obvious answer is standing still.
Bad analogy

10 points from Gryffindor
Why?

Okay, I'm actually gonna do the math for you.

Let's say we have 100 common words, right?

Well one of them is the one that the voodoo lady curses.

Now, the chances of saying the word are 1/100.

If we use multiple codes now, lets say 3 different codes, the chances are already 1/300. You get me?

The more codes we use the less likely it is that the right word will be cursed.

underFlo · Postby **underFlo** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:01 pm

KoolKat wrote:Because, if you use the same code multiple times, the chances of the voodoo lady guessing the code is like 100% and using it multiple times will make it really hard to avoid using certain coded words

You can change it each day though. The code can't ba changed in the middle of a day.

underFlo · Postby **underFlo** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:03 pm

Also I think we al have different standpoints.

Your idea is that guessing the word is the problem. That isn't. She's gonna use a super common word that is used in almost every sentence anyways, so it's only about guessing the code. The word is basically irrelevant or atleast distinct from the choice of the code.

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:03 pm

Nickname, stop using flawed logic. GLuigiX is right.

zioy · Postby **zioy** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:03 pm

Oh I saw your new post nvm decent logic

Postby **Marina** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:06 pm

Well, in the end I think codes are gonna end up being useless after all. I guess one of us will just always have to take the bullet, Nickname is right.

Ignoritus · Postby **Ignoritus** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:06 pm

KoolKat wrote:Nickname, stop using flawed logic. GLuigiX is right.

he's not though, he's totally right.

The voodoo lady only selects a word once a night, and they're likely to choose a word that's almost undoubtedly going to be used. If you make a post and don't die, it's likely that the voodoo lady predicted a different code. Therefore you're putting yourself at further risk by using a different code. Changing code every night and then agreeing on one quickly the next day is optimal.

Of course, I'm fairly certain words like "a" and "the" are banned from being the death word anyways.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sun Oct 05, 2014 3:08 pm

I have a way around the voodoo lady myself, but I won't say what it is. I don't want him/her to figure it out. It's foolproof though, and if I do end up dying, I'll have a scapegoat to claim that the voodoo lady is cheating.
Also:

KoolKat wrote:
Nickname wrote:
KoolKat wrote:You're forgetting that the likelihood of the voodoo lady guessing the code right is less than 1%.
But if you change it with each post the chances of you getting the same code the voodoo lady chose only grow.

Look at it like that: You've been dropped into an empty field where there's one mine. You can either walk around there or stand still, knowing that at a certain time someone's coming to get you back. What would you do? The obvious answer is standing still.
Bad analogy

10 points from Gryffindor

Nice to see someone is using my joke from M6.