M16: The Best of Both Worlds - MAFIA VICTORY

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:51 pm

Zeldamaster12 wrote:I think you need to calm down, PPX. You're getting way too into this and going as far as heavily flaming and using italicized colored caps.

Anyways, Joey hardly even accused you. You are getting way too nervous and panicking, which makes you suspicious.

Quite the contrary, I'm not even mad, nor am I trying to flame. The purple text was a joke.

Mivixion wrote:That's not what I said at all. What I said was that the last person to be skeptical of the alliance was a bad guy. You're trying to frame the entire town's alliance and make it seem like that group is the bad guys... if you were a Mafia member, they would be!

There's a 50/50 chance he was. The last person to be skeptical of the alliance COULD HAVE BEEN a bad guy, not was. Nothing is concrete in Mafia, that's where trust come in to play.

Mivixion · Postby **Mivixion** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:53 pm

In that case, do you trust in Bloodedge being the SK? Was his behavior and color matching just a coincidence? Is it really a 50/50 shot?

Zeldamaster12 · Postby **Zeldamaster12** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:01 pm

I need the Doctor to privately claim to me.

All of the blues including mydelf are in contact with each other except you. The Doctor is a very vital role to the town.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:07 pm

Mivixion wrote:In that case, do you trust in Bloodedge being the SK? Was his behavior and color matching just a coincidence? Is it really a 50/50 shot?

Well...he was suspicious in ways AFTER he made his counter-alliance argument, so...maybe he was? We'll never know until the night ends. And by then, if the Serial Killer IS still alive, one of us will get royally and anally fucked.

Mivixion · Postby **Mivixion** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:10 pm

There's also a vigi...

Zeldamaster12 · Postby **Zeldamaster12** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:11 pm

The Vigilante is still alive.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:13 pm

Mivixion wrote:There's also a vigi...

Wouldn't that mean three kills per night? Mafia, Vigi, and Serial Killer? So why were there only two the first night? Did two of the killing parties target the same person? If so...who?

BlimpFruit · Postby **BlimpFruit** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:16 pm

Well, there's two possibilities. Either one person was targeted twice, or one of the three (mafia, vigi, and SK) decided not to kill anyone, for whatever reason.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:19 pm

BlimpFruit wrote:Well, there's two possibilities. Either one person was targeted twice, or one of the three (mafia, vigi, and SK) decided not to kill anyone, for whatever reason.

The latter of which might be more likely. Maybe?

Mivixion · Postby **Mivixion** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:23 pm

Yeah, why would the vigi randomkill Night 1? He has the chance of losing the ability for a night where it could be better applied.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:25 pm

Mivixion wrote:Yeah, why would the vigi randomkill Night 1? He has the chance of losing the ability for a night where it could be better applied.

So you're saying the vigi CHOSE not the kill someone Night 1 for safety reasons? I agree.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:28 pm

Also, it must mean this:
If Marina wasn't the miller, then the Mafia killed Nickname and the SK killed Marina.
If Marina WAS the miller, then the Mafia and Serial Killer could've killed either-or.
THEREFORE:
There is a 2/3 chance that Marina was killed by the SK, and therefore Mafia.
There is a 1/3 chance that Marina was killed by the Mafia, making him the miller.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:29 pm

PaperPlayerX wrote:Also, it must mean this:
If Marina wasn't the miller, then the Mafia killed Nickname and the SK killed Marina.
If Marina WAS the miller, then the Mafia and Serial Killer could've killed either-or.
THEREFORE:
There is a 2/3 chance that Marina was killed by the SK, and therefore Mafia.
There is a 1/3 chance that Marina was killed by the Mafia, making him the miller.

And I forgot other stuff, like:
-Nickname could've been the Vigi and that's why his kill didn't go in.

Mivixion · Postby **Mivixion** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:30 pm

PaperPlayerX wrote:Also, it must mean this:
If Marina wasn't the miller, then the Mafia killed Nickname and the SK killed Marina.
If Marina WAS the miller, then the Mafia and Serial Killer could've killed either-or.
THEREFORE:
There is a 2/3 chance that Marina was killed by the SK, and therefore Mafia.
There is a 1/3 chance that Marina was killed by the Mafia, making him the miller.

It's technically not probability; while statistics are useful at times, this isn't one of those times. We have to get into the heads of the Mafia/SK and think:
"If I were in this scenario, why would I have killed the player I did?"

Mivixion · Postby **Mivixion** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:32 pm

PaperPlayerX wrote:
PaperPlayerX wrote:Also, it must mean this:
If Marina wasn't the miller, then the Mafia killed Nickname and the SK killed Marina.
If Marina WAS the miller, then the Mafia and Serial Killer could've killed either-or.
THEREFORE:
There is a 2/3 chance that Marina was killed by the SK, and therefore Mafia.
There is a 1/3 chance that Marina was killed by the Mafia, making him the miller.
And I forgot other stuff, like:
-Nickname could've been the Vigi and that's why his kill didn't go in.

ZM has already confirmed that Nickname was the Sheriff and had claimed so to him. You don't claim to be a different blue than you are because that's just as likely to get you killed, and then it confuses the town (which a blue doesn't want to do).
Makes no sense 0/10

Zeldamaster12 · Postby **Zeldamaster12** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:34 pm

I need to clear this up.

Obviously the Vigi either didn't kill Night 1, or, the better odds, he killed Marina. He didn't lose his power this night, because he asked the alliance who he should kill tonight.

Oh and yes, Nickname was the Sheriff.

BlimpFruit · Postby **BlimpFruit** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:35 pm

There is a 2/3 chance that Marina was killed by the SK, and therefore Mafia.

Wait, why couldn't it have been that Marina was the miller in this scenario?

Mivixion · Postby **Mivixion** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:36 pm

BlimpFruit wrote:
There is a 2/3 chance that Marina was killed by the SK, and therefore Mafia.
Wait, why couldn't it have been that Marina was the miller in this scenario?

^thanks for pointing this out. Just because a red is nightkilled in a scenario with a serial killer doesn't mean they are automatically mafia.

Danny · Postby **Danny** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:42 pm

One problem we face right now is that the Serial Killer could still be alive. If the Vigilante is going to kill tonight, and if the Mafia is going to kill tonight (which I would think they would every night so the probability of them not going to attempt a kill is thrown out the window to be honest), that means that if there is a third kill, the Serial Killer is still alive somehow, and Bloodedge is the Millwright.

Also I have a slight feeling that this whole alliance thing, while it can benefit the town, it might turn into an inside job. I wouldn't take this for granted, I just have the strangest feeling that we're being played at.

MacheTheFerret · Postby **MacheTheFerret** » Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:44 pm

I jumped to conclusions too quickly, sorry. When I think I'm on to something, I go too far...sometimes. :3

8bitmushroom wrote:One problem we face right now is that the Serial Killer could still be alive. If the Vigilante is going to kill tonight, and if the Mafia is going to kill tonight (which I would think they would every night so the probability of them not going to attempt a kill is thrown out the window to be honest), that means that if there is a third kill, the Serial Killer is still alive somehow, and Bloodedge is the Millwright.

Also I have a slight feeling that this whole alliance thing, while it can benefit the town, it might turn into an inside job. I wouldn't take this for granted, I just have the strangest feeling that we're being played at.

Be careful 8bit. What you have just said has made you 100% guaranteed Mafia because you had a an opinion that opposed the alliance.