M14: The SMBX Forum Mafia [Normal Users Win!]

[Zeldamaster12]

Sounds good.

[underFlo]

It's past 8 PM GMT now, meaning that it's too late to send in yourr powers. I'll be busy for a bit though so I'll give you time until 8:15.

[Marina]

It's 8:16, you're late Nicky .3.

[underFlo]

Ok, it's 8:15 now so here is your result.

PaperPlayerX died.

Day 2 will last until tomorrow on 8 PM GMT. Please note that all the additions to the Mafua rules made yesterday are active now.

Seeing as I'm using a phone atm, it might take some time until everyone gets his reports. I apologise for this.

[Zeldamaster12]

Well then, two LJs down already.

[Shadow Yoshi]

Okay, so here's what I think we should consider:

How likely do you think it was that PaperPlayerX was painted? And does anybody have any PMs or interactions with him that show who he has been talking to? If he is actually a Mafia member, those people may be in the Mafia with him.

However, on second thought, the Mafia members don't have a painting ability. So the scenario there would be that a Mafia member somehow communicated with the painter to get PaperPlayerX painted pink.

[Shadow Yoshi]

Let's get suspicion lists going as well, or at least talk about who you think could be in the Mafia.

[Marina]

However, on second thought, the Mafia members don't have a painting ability. So the scenario there would be that a Mafia member somehow communicated with the painter to get PaperPlayerX painted pink.

Uhm...?????????


??????




?????????????

The Mafia HAS painting ability???

[Shadow Yoshi]

Those are the Level Judges, not the Mafia.

[Zeldamaster12]

Oh God, not a painter. Anything but that. M6 was total hell because of that role (too bad I was the painter that game but still, I know how ridiculous that it was).

Welp guys, good luck finding out who's who now, since the colors are completely random.

[Marina]

Those are the Level Judges, not the Mafia.

...

Joey...

I think I have some news for you.

[Choco]

Care to actually state that news? Because Joey isn't wrong.

[qig]

I doubt PaperPlayer was painted. Seems too unlikely.

[Choco]

Yeah. Not sure why they would waste their one paint on someone that nobody suspected.

[Shadow Yoshi]

No, the colors are not completely random. The probability that someone has been painted is 50/50, and the probability that a randomly chosen player has been painted is only 1 out of however many players we have left including PaperPlayerX (since the painting was done at night, also Nickname please update the first post to show who's still alive). The probability, then, that said player has been painted a color other than their normal one is 75%.

Therefore, the probability that any given inspection at this point in time would yield a significant painting (i.e. one that is of a color that isn't the player's original) is 0.375 divided by the amount of players we have left. That's a very small number.

GMarinaX: You're right, never mind. The Admins and LJs are meant to target eachother (which is why I thought they were different) but they're both targetting the normal users.

[Shadow Yoshi]

...and it says the normal users are only targetting the admins and the third party.

[Choco]

Actually, unless Nickname screwed up the roles, the painter can only paint once. So the probability seems pretty low.

[Marina]

Normal Users (Goal: Kill all Mafia and 3P)

I think that means both LJ's and Admins. At least that's how Nick explained the game to me? I'm not sure I'm confused myself now.

[Shadow Yoshi]

oh it says mafia

okay

[Choco]

But are the LJs considered Mafia?