M40: The Last Mafia - Mafia Wins

[Julia Pseudo]

DAY 3 has ended!

An insta!

Sanct was thrown to the ground by the townspeople and called a lot of dirty names. One so dirty that the shock of it caused his heart to stop. What was that name? Litt... well, you know.
Sanct has died!

It is now NIGHT 4! Night 4 will end at about 2:00 PM Pacific Standard Time, May 25.

Please note that this is considerably earlier than normal due to the early insta and me being busy at the normal time tomorrow.

[TLtimelord]

Sanct was as broken as I was last game.

[Zeldamaster12]

Seeing how as a last effort he tried to claim Sheriff, I'd say he's confirmed as Mafia.

[MECHDRAGON777]

Well, that Sheriff Claim looks bad for him, but at least we know we got a confirmed Mafia member out of it.

[ShadowStarX]

Okay so let's see two scenarios

Worst:
Waddle Derp - Vigilante
King of Eterity, Witchking666 and Danny - 2 Townies and the Nurse
Megar- Miller
Sanct - Goon

In summary: show

Disguiser
Consort
Doublespeaker
Mafioso

Sheriff
Doctor
Deputy
Townsperson
Townsperson
Townsperson
Townsperson
Townsperson

Best:
Waddle Derp - Vigilante
King of Eterity, Witchking666 and Danny - 3 Townies
Megar - Consort
Sanct - Doublespeaker

In summary: show

Disguiser
Mafioso
Mafioso

Sheriff
Doctor
Deputy
Nurse
Townsperson
Townsperson
Townsperson
Townsperson
Miller

These might not be the absolute best/worst scenarios but I guess this kinda sums it up at least.

[underFlo]

best case scenario is something we shouldnt really consider - we should hope it happened but we shouldn't base any of our assumptions on it.

It is nice to have a possible summary of our situation tho. 2 reds down is certainly nice but the problem is that those were merely cop reports - I am of course glad that 2 reds died and that we have a pretty much confirmed cop but merely following the cop's reports in the next few days may lead to us not having all that many leads aside from that.

Due to the cop being anonymous and there most likely being a deputy there is a good chance that we'll hopefully get enough red reports/greens that we can lynch based off thar but there should be some discussion taking place in order for us to gain some reads. If the rest of the game is just instas and following the cop that may shoot us in the foot next time.

If you think I'm being too pessimistic again bear in mind that I'm merely advocating for discussion to be had - we should trust the cop, but we can't expect him to be there for the rest of the game, so we should try to gain some crutches in the case he dies.

[MECHDRAGON777]

best case scenario is something we shouldnt really consider - we should hope it happened but we shouldn't base any of our assumptions on it.

It is nice to have a possible summary of our situation tho. 2 reds down is certainly nice but the problem is that those were merely cop reports - I am of course glad that 2 reds died and that we have a pretty much confirmed cop but merely following the cop's reports in the next few days may lead to us not having all that many leads aside from that.

Due to the cop being anonymous and there most likely being a deputy there is a good chance that we'll hopefully get enough red reports/greens that we can lynch based off thar but there should be some discussion taking place in order for us to gain some reads. If the rest of the game is just instas and following the cop that may shoot us in the foot next time.

If you think I'm being too pessimistic again bear in mind that I'm merely advocating for discussion to be had - we should trust the cop, but we can't expect him to be there for the rest of the game, so we should try to gain some crutches in the case he dies.

Honestly, Any green/blue inspection could end up being the Disguiser.

[ShadowStarX]

best case scenario is something we shouldnt really consider - we should hope it happened but we shouldn't base any of our assumptions on it.

It is nice to have a possible summary of our situation tho. 2 reds down is certainly nice but the problem is that those were merely cop reports - I am of course glad that 2 reds died and that we have a pretty much confirmed cop but merely following the cop's reports in the next few days may lead to us not having all that many leads aside from that.

Due to the cop being anonymous and there most likely being a deputy there is a good chance that we'll hopefully get enough red reports/greens that we can lynch based off thar but there should be some discussion taking place in order for us to gain some reads. If the rest of the game is just instas and following the cop that may shoot us in the foot next time.

If you think I'm being too pessimistic again bear in mind that I'm merely advocating for discussion to be had - we should trust the cop, but we can't expect him to be there for the rest of the game, so we should try to gain some crutches in the case he dies.

Honestly, Any green/blue inspection could end up being the Disguiser.

Indeed.
And if the disguiser targets the sheriff or the doctor by accident and the sheriff inspects someone as a blue who isn't the doctor, then we can p. much say that we've caught the disguiser. True the disguiser would most likely be green during the night.

[PersonNamedUser]

Okay, now what should we do?

[Cedur]

Spoiler: show

[12:31 PM] Spinda: also i still fail to see the concrete evidence against me
[12:31 PM] Spinda: like sorry that i dont wanna play riskily on a game where the mafia already has an advantage
[12:31 PM] Spinda: i even backed down on my suspicion after koe turned up green
[12:32 PM] Spinda: so like i dont see how what i was doing was unreasonable in any way
[12:32 PM] Spinda: was i wrong in any shape or form?
[12:32 PM] Spinda: if so do tell me
[12:34 PM] Spinda: at this point i 99% trust the cop claim because if they were mafia they would not fake 2 red claims - one can be achieved through bussing, but a second one would be stupid for a vanilla to do
[12:35 PM] Spinda: and i believe i did admit that after the megar lynch
[12:35 PM] Gladion: DID I GIVE YOU PERMISSION TO SAY MY NAME
[12:35 PM] Spinda: sanct could of course be a miller but to my knowledge its impossible for the mafia to figure out if one is a miller

compared to ZM's quote

you and spinda are being very pessimistic and i don't like it

spinda i think you're looking too deep into this lol

that's actually where the distrust was coming from, and your wall of messages from today also looks a bit panicky. I also now have the hunch that you have been a little too worked up for being town, and if you're the disguiser together with Megar, you'd have a motive to create doubts as much as possible.

Problem is, if Spinda is the disguiser, we have no means to find him out other than biting the bullet again. We need a more elaborate lead to find out the disguiser either way. I'll also try to find more suspicions tomorrow

[glitch4]

Not sure if some of mafia specials are dead, but if at least consort or doublespeaker is dead then we're on the right track now.

[underFlo]

i mean idk how to meaningfully communicate in the chat other than by putting a long message

and if you've played any game with me you should know i either post super short shitposts or long elaborate overthinking stuff

[MECHDRAGON777]

I have a feeling I forgot to post on Night 4, please do not kill me for forgetting to post before now. Glad to see Sanct was mafia though, his Sheriff claim makes it impossible for him to be Miller.

[PersonNamedUser]

I have a feeling I forgot to post on Night 4, please do not kill me for forgetting to post before now. Glad to see Sanct was mafia though, his Sheriff claim makes it impossible for him to be Miller.

MECH, why would we kill you just for not posting?

[Thehelmetguy1]

Hey, Sanct was red. That is nice to hear. I assume the claimer is confirmed in this case. I guess ZM can also be trusted.

[Thehelmetguy1]

And I mean both are 100% confirmed

[glitch4]

I have a feeling I forgot to post on Night 4, please do not kill me for forgetting to post before now. Glad to see Sanct was mafia though, his Sheriff claim makes it impossible for him to be Miller.

Not posting at least in one phase does not make you suspicious :d

[Noodle]

Oy, Sanct was red?!

[Cedur]

I have a feeling I forgot to post on Night 4, please do not kill me for forgetting to post before now. Glad to see Sanct was mafia though, his Sheriff claim makes it impossible for him to be Miller.

Not posting at least in one phase does not make you suspicious :d

nor does it get you kicked, people here are active enough

So, suspicion thoughts for now:

Good tier:

Zeldamaster12: he's confirmed alliance leader and Sanct tried to mess with him desparately. So he's safe.
ShadowStarX: most likely to be innocent now, since he turned the bandwagon against him to get Megar lynched and verify the sheriff claim. Only theoretical chance of him being scum would be Megar being the miller, or Mega being a goon and SSX being a more powerful role.
TNTtimelord: He acts with very reasonable pro-town logic and is also not as inactive as it seemed at first. Not suspicious.

Suspicious tier: (noone can be considered highly suspicious yet)

Spinda: I actually share ZM's hunch that he has a chance to be the disguiser, and ZM also knows his playstyle. He also wanted to have a KoE insta at Day 1 by all means. There's no way we can be sure about anything though.

You've been extremely pessimistic the entire game and it makes me feel like something is off about you.

thehelmetguy1: He has been acting weird and jumping on bandwagons at the start of the game, now he's been more quiet. He's said "sheriff feel free to inspect me" when it was considered that he should be inspected, which may be truthful but could also be an attempt of reverse psychology if the sheriff should inspect him and maybe find him out red. He has also singled out Spinda in his suspicion list, so if Spinda is the disguiser then thg1 would appear more innocent, but it's even possible that they're both mafia.
Noodle: Has made purely random votes and votes after phaseshift, and just seems too trolly to give him puppy license. He's pretty much the opposite of pro-town. Would be good to know his cardflip color as well.

Unsure tier:

MosaicMario: His logic is quite shifty and he followed bandwagons easily, but his intentions seem to be genuine nevertheless. Probably the most suspicious among the unsure tier but no actual evidence to place him in the suspicious tier.
glitch4: He seems okay for the most part, making many trivial statements but still contributing. He just claimed that Noodle is green "only because it's his first time", so if Noodle is indeed scum, then glitch4 might be too.
Doesntpostverymuch, MECHDRAGON777: Both are wildcards as usual, but they go with the flow of the town for the most part. Not looking too bad.
Uzendayo: Is mostly only following the votes right above his posts. Should not be afraid to make own thoughts.

So Sheriff, if you read this, I'd suggest you inspect Noodle or thg1.

[ShadowStarX]

In my personal opinion, we should go after Thehelmetguy1 tomorrow (unless he's inspected green, because the chance of a green being the disguiser isn't really high but Spinda is also inspected green at this point and those two look equally suspicious)
Thg1 cardflipping red upon death would probably mean that Noodle is innocent. However thg1's innocence wouldn't confirm all that much about Noodle aside from increasing the chance (but not confirming) of him being mafia.

What shall we do tomorrow if thg1 is inspected green instead of red or blue? (since if he's inspected blue and not part of the alliance that'd also kinda confirm him being the disguiser at least from how I see it)