M30: We are the 70.58% - Joint Politicians/Third Party Victory

[Kyo Saito]

So, I've been mulling around a bit, and I noticed that in Mechdragon's lists there, on who might be doublespeaker, he removed himself from that list. I just have to ask if there's any particular reason why he did that?

[Doesntpostverymuch]

So, I've been mulling around a bit, and I noticed that in Mechdragon's lists there, on who might be doublespeaker, he removed himself from that list. I just have to ask if there's any particular reason why he did that?

Because he made the list and therefore knows that he is not the double speaker.

[PixelPest]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

[Doesntpostverymuch]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

[PixelPest]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

But by saying that you're making the assumption that he's telling the truth

[MECHDRAGON777]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

I voted for Supershroom on day one. My list of people who could be double speaker is for people who did not vote for the person instead when their was not enough people for an insta. If a message does not get posted tonight, I say we vote Nien or Kyo Saito since the double speaker would be alive and they double voted has to be one of those three. I will say I have a 14% chance of being red though. 3 mafia means we need to have them going down before we have Six total left.

[HeroOfRhyme]

I think mechdragon is either mafia or the third party, there is an off chance he might be green but he could cardflip red or something. After all if he is third party the mafia isnt really a threat to him since they couldnt night kill him

[MECHDRAGON777]

I think mechdragon is either mafia or the third party, there is an off chance he might be green but he could cardflip red or something. After all if he is third party the mafia isnt really a threat to him since they couldnt night kill him

Why do you think I am red? I just said their is a 1/7 chance (~14%) of me being red because of the "Miller".

[MECHDRAGON777]

I think mechdragon is either mafia or the third party, there is an off chance he might be green but he could cardflip red or something. After all if he is third party the mafia isnt really a threat to him since they couldnt night kill him

Why do you think I am red? I just said their is a 1/7 chance (~14%) of me being red because of the "Miller".

Make that 1/5 (20%) chance.

[Kyo Saito]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

I voted for Supershroom on day one.

And so did a bunch of other people.

My list of people who could be double speaker is for people who did not vote for the person instead when their was not enough people for an insta.

I hope you realize this could have been anyone, including ExKyo.

If a message does not get posted tonight, I say we vote Nien or Kyo Saito since the double speaker would be alive and they double voted has to be one of those three.

I'm not sure how any of that adds up though, especially considering you have completely taken yourself out of these lists, and you have given no reason for us to trust you otherwise. The only red we've actually gotten off of that list was ExKyo, but I attribute that to dumb luck.

I will say I have a 14% chance of being red though. 3 mafia means we need to have them going down before we have Six total left.

Unless the Miller was killed, that is.

[MECHDRAGON777]

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

I voted for Supershroom on day one.

And so did a bunch of other people.

My list of people who could be double speaker is for people who did not vote for the person instead when their was not enough people for an insta.

I hope you realize this could have been anyone, including ExKyo.

If a message does not get posted tonight, I say we vote Nien or Kyo Saito since the double speaker would be alive and they double voted has to be one of those three.

I'm not sure how any of that adds up though, especially considering you have completely taken yourself out of these lists, and you have given no reason for us to trust you otherwise. The only red we've actually gotten off of that list was ExKyo, but I attribute that to dumb luck.

I will say I have a 14% chance of being red though. 3 mafia means we need to have them going down before we have Six total left.

Unless the Miller was killed, that is.

A. The only people that did not vote for Supershroom day one are listed a page or two back in my list. The people that that Not vote for Nuclear_Blaze the following day are listed below the same post.
B. The list of the suspensious is the ones who did not vote for either. ExKyo never voted in the thread. (Same for you.) Nien just posted, but since we got more than 50% shown, we can not rule him out.
C. The way I see that. If a message does not add up, means we got the propagandist. If the Propagandist is dead, the double speaker is alive. If the double speaker is alive, it has to be you or Nien. The reason my name was stroked out is that I fit in the list of people who either voted or Supershroom or Nuear_Blaze the day that got voted. (I voted both, but took my vote off of Nuclear_Blaze, which makes me guilty on that list. Since my name did not appear on both lists of people who did not vote for the Instaed user, I can not be the double speaker.
D. Correct, unless the Miller is already dead. Otherwise I have a 20% chance of being the miller.

---

For an insta, you need more than 50% of the votes. In the case of days one and two, they each got exactly 50% of the votes meaning the double speaker ballot-box voted both times. Day three was voted for with 8/11 people who. Six is needed for an insta.if five voted for ExKyo before the "ExKyo has a chance to defend himself", then we would have know someone else is the double speaker, bit that post came at 6/11. (Not at (5/11). I actually hope we hit the Propagandist during Day 3 so we know for a fact we have a lead on who another mafia is. Otherwise, we lost. Ten people left, three or four mafia left, and a third party. So, we need the mafia down before it hits eight.

If we hit the miller, ratio is the following (with third party killing town/with third party killing mafia/without third party) this also assumed we hit red every day.
Day 3
4:6
Night 4
4:3(loss)/3:5/4:5
Day 4
3:5 (assuming third party did not kill)
Night 5
3:3 (loss)/2:4/3:4
Day 5
2:4 (assuming third party does not kill)
Night 6
2:2(loss)/1:3/2:3
Day 6
1:3 (assuming third party does not kill)
Night 7
1:1(third-party versus last mafia)/0:2 (third party versus town member)/ 1:2 (one member from each faction)
Day 7
0:2 (assuming third party did not kill)
Night 8
Third party wins

---

With this information, I do not think it is possible the town to win, but will still be a toss up between mafia and third party. I can not wait to see what night I parish. Eitherway, to the town, do you see a way we can win this, if so, how Percice does our votes and luck with third party killing do we need? (The third party not killing is them aiming at the same person). I am actually pretty scared/nourvious about this situation.

[Valentine]

Why would you assume that the third party wouldn't kill?

[MECHDRAGON777]

Why would you assume that the third party wouldn't kill?

Best case scenario

[Valentine]

Why would you assume that the third party wouldn't kill?

Best case scenario

It'd be better if you assumed what would mote realistically happen. Sonce the tp killed last 2 nights I really doubt they'd just stop

[Doesntpostverymuch]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

But by saying that you're making the assumption that he's telling the truth

No i'm not, you're just assuming that.

[Doesntpostverymuch]

And you really believe that? How do you know MECHDRAGON777 is not lying Doesntpostverymuch?

i don't i'm just stating why he crossed his own name out.

I voted for Supershroom on day one. My list of people who could be double speaker is for people who did not vote for the person instead when their was not enough people for an insta. If a message does not get posted tonight, I say we vote Nien or Kyo Saito since the double speaker would be alive and they double voted has to be one of those three. I will say I have a 14% chance of being red though. 3 mafia means we need to have them going down before we have Six total left.

i wasn't even HERE on day one, and MY name is still non-crossed out on the list!

[Valentine]

You replaced TNTimelord.

[Doesntpostverymuch]

You replaced TNTimelord.

yes, but i didn't get any chance to vote.

[Valentine]

You replaced TNTimelord.

yes, but i didn't get any chance to vote.

I'm so fucking done trying to explain anything to you.

[Doesntpostverymuch]

You replaced TNTimelord.

yes, but i didn't get any chance to vote.

I'm so fucking done trying to explain anything to you.

okay then.